Economist and PhD candidate in climate change and sustainable development policies, José Tiago Sousa, has issued a warning about the perverse effects of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). He argues that the instrument, as currently designed, "strangles vulnerable communities and, in various scenarios, worsens global inequalities."
In an opinion piece published in Diário de Notícias, Tiago questions the effectiveness and fairness of the CBAM in a geopolitical context marked by wars, trade tensions, and energy crises that are beyond the control of the most fragile countries.
"The mechanism was built to penalize countries that choose not to decarbonize. But Venezuela didn't choose anything: the carbon intensity of its exports reflects institutional collapse, a national blackout (2019), and now a geological catastrophe (2026) – not a preference for 'dirty' technology. A mechanism that treats deliberate inaction and structural incapacity as the same thing is not accounting for redistributive justice.".
The CBAM, which came into effect in 2026 and now covers finished products, chemicals, steel, iron, aluminum, and cement, was designed to prevent carbon leakage – the phenomenon where companies relocate to countries with more permissive climate rules. However, Tiago emphasizes that the real "carbon leakage" in 2026 originates from geopolitics: wars that increase emissions, trade wars that fragment climate action, and the abandonment of international cooperation by the US administration.
The economist recalls that South Africa has already warned that the CBAM could reduce its exports to the EU by 30 to 35%, affecting millions of jobs. In Portugal, farmers face an estimated additional cost of 28 million euros annually due to carbon taxation on imported fertilizers, in a sector that already denounces the lack of concrete support measures from the Portuguese government.
The full article can be read at: https://www.dn.pt/opiniao-dn/o-carbon-leakage-em-tempos-de-caos .